When NOAA and the news media can't get the weather right it is difficult to predict trout behavior. We have had thunderstorms in one town and the neighboring town none! One part of the river gets rain and further upstream none! So what we have to do is go with water temperature in your neck of the river.
Of course water clarity is huge, but water temperatures are even more important. As northern Michigan tourism peaks for the 4th of July week and some of us will be heading to a river, have your water thermometer with you. If the warm temperatures in the river persist you will have to fish at dawn and dusk. Even so, if the water temp is still over 70 F seek out shaded holes with cool springs feeding them.
The Hex hatch is not developing reliably here in the north and the only notification for it is by word of mouth. The pros who spend their evenings watching the river are the only chance you have to catch a Hex hatch and they generally aren't inclined to randomly give out that information. There are so many variables to the Hex hatch and fishing it requires late nights and much patience. It is a true fly fishing endeavor.
Bottom line, avoid the hot times of the day and if we have a cool night get to the river at sunrise. If we get cooling evenings then it dusk for the outing.
Right now the Pigeon River has seen heating into the mid 70s F. The Sturgeon slightly cooler in the low 70s F. The Black River is in the high 60s F to low 70s F as is the Maple River. These temps can change based on what we get this coming week which is to be in the upper 70s F to low 80s F and cool evenings. Any rain we get can also help lower the river water temps. You really need to take the water temp where you fly fish to know what to expect.
Flies are Drakes and Hex sizes 6 or 8 in the evening with Adams, Trudes, and Caddis size 10 to 16 in the day. "Match the hatch" for size and type of bug. Been having good success with March Browns sizes 10 and 12.
Reel Waters wishes you a happy 4th of July holiday, and enjoy your freedom on the river!
Richard and Jim
Letting you know current conditions and best approaches.